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Trump impeachment: Intelligence vs political calculations

The House of Representatives will file impeachment charges against Donald Trump this week.

Centtrip: Trump impeachment: Intelligence vs political calculations

House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi has announced that the Democratic Party will bring articles of impeachment against Donald Trump, making him the fourth US president in history to face the move. After two months of a formal inquiry, the House will now decide which articles to bring forward, with abuse of power, obstruction of justice and possibly bribery among the front runners.

However, it is all but certain that Trump will be impeached. The House of Representatives is controlled by the Democrats who only need a simple majority to proceed. Meanwhile, the Republican-controlled Senate (53 to 47) will try the president in early months of 2020, but to convict him a two-thirds majority is required to pass the motion, which is a mammoth and unrealistic task.

Eye on sentiment

As this week begins, the UK general election will set direction for the markets. But we will keep an eye on top-tier data tomorrow, 10 December as Germany will release its latest indicator of economic sentiment:

10:00 (GMT) ­­– German ZEW economic sentiment for December – Previous: -2.1; Forecast: 0.5

The ZEW indicator will come out just two days before Christine Lagarde holds her first meeting as the President of the European Central Bank (ECB). German sentiment has been bleak and negative since March 2018, apart from a brief uptick in April 2019.

If the release meets expectations, Lagarde could get a boost of confidence ahead of the ECB’s interest rate meeting. That said, Germany’s industrial production continued to decline, having contracted by 1.7 per cent in November, despite a forecast of 0.1 per cent growth. A weaker-than-expected number could turn up the pressure on the single currency and make Lagarde’s job even harder.

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