Back to insights News

Theresa May could call it a day on her premiership

The embattled UK prime minister is likely to step down with no approved Brexit deal in her pocket.

Theresa May could call it a day on her premiership

Theresa May will finally call time on her premiership today, almost three years after picking up the Brexit baton. She will set out her departure timeline to the chairman of the 1922 Committee of Conservative backbench MPs, Graham Brady, today, with a leadership campaign likely to start on 10 June. This will allow time to find a new leader before the summer recess beginning on 20 July.

Boris Johnson is leading the way among the 125,000 Conservative party members, according to a YouGov poll for The Times. However, he must make it to the final two and still faces stiff competition from fellow Brexiteers, including Dominic Raab and Andrea Leadsom.

The Pound plateaued after 14 days of losses, trading at $1.2603 against the Dollar, and pushed above $1.2660 as it became clear there could be a new path for Brexit.

Key data releases

This morning, the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) will release retail sales data for April, which is expected to show a decline in spending by 0.3 per cent, after rising 1.1 per cent in March. The drop in consumer spend will probably be attributed to Brexit as consumers were likely making purchases ahead of the previous 31 March deadline. A larger-than-forecast decline will weigh on the Pound as it is likely to lead to a drop in inflation in the coming months.

Later in the day, the US will release durable goods data which are forecast to have dropped by 2 per cent  in April. Having increased by 2.7 per cent in March, this vastly lower number could be the result of the woes of Boeing. The aircraft manufacturer reported zero orders for jets in April due to the recent 737 MAX scandal.

Markets may look more to the durable goods, excluding transportation, for a true picture, which is forecast to have risen by a modest 0.2 per cent in April, compared to a 0.4 per cent increase in March. If this number beats expectations, it could be good news for the Dollar as confidence in other sectors remains strong. If it misses expectations, it would suggest that the US economy is stuttering, piling more pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates this year to stimulate domestic growth, especially as the ongoing trade war continues to erode global growth.

Related Insights:

Sterling suffers as May runs out of road

US-Chinese trade tensions go from sour to bitter

 

Data provided by

Related Insight

More Insights