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No promises from Eurozone’s inflation data

The Eurozone’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is due to be released this morning at 10:00

Centtrip

The Eurozone’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is due to be released this morning at 10:00 (GMT). Inflation forecast at 1.2 per cent, a 0.1 per cent drop from the February read, could add weight to European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s comments earlier this week that “victory cannot be declared yet”. As rates are rising in the US and the UK, this could weaken the Euro.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May met with senior business leaders yesterday to underline the urgency for Britain to finalise a Brexit transition deal with the European Union. May hopes to finalise the details of the transition next week as she meets with the leaders of the other 27 EU member states. The Times has reported that European Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier’s stance has recently softened and is willing to accept that Britain will be free to negotiate and sign trade deals during any transition period.

The geo-political tensions between the UK and Russia have heightened further following the poisoning in Salisbury, UK. With the US, France and Germany joining the condemnation of the Russian state, everyone is waiting to see what ramifications of additional economic and diplomatic sanctions will be, especially as large swathes of the Eurozone are reliant on Russian oil and gas.

EUR/USD $1.2307 (+$0.0003)

EUR/USD opened in Asia at $1.2303 towards the lower end of Thursday’s range. We began the session on back foot, falling to today’s low of $1.2293. The pair found support as the session wore on, rising to today’s high of $1.2313 after the Washington Post reported that US President Trump had fired his National Security Advisor McMaster and had warned by others. The reports were quickly shot down by the White House with Press Secretary Sanders stating Trump is said not to have decided on the removal of McMaster. The market is still around the highs as we head into the European open, trading at $1.2307. From a technical view, we look for resistance at $1.2413 ahead of $1.2500. On the downside, $1.2273 and $1.2206 are in focus.

GBPR/USD $1.3929 (-$0.0007)

Cable opened in Asia at $1.3934 towards the lower end of Thursday’s range. We began the session on the front foot, rising to today’s high of $1.3940. The pair briefly came under pressure as the session wore on, falling to today’s low of $1.3910 but quickly erased most of its losses on the McMaster firing reports. The market is back around the upper end of the session as we head into the open in Europe, trading at $1.3929. From a technical view, we look for support at $1.3890 ahead of $1.3850. On the upside, $1.3995 and $1.4070 are in focus.

USD/JPY ¥105.95 (-¥0.38)

USD/JPY opened in Asia at ¥106.33 towards the upper end of Thursday’s range. We began the session on the front foot, rising to today’s high of ¥106.38 shortly after the open. The pair came under pressure as the session wore on, falling to today’s low of ¥105.83 on the potential McMaster firing and also on a report from CNN which suggested North Korean nuclear reactors are showing fresh signs of activity according to satellite images. The market is off the lows as we head into the European open, trading at ¥105.95. From a technical view, we look for support at ¥105.55 ahead of ¥105.25. On the upside, ¥107.05 and ¥107.29 are in focus.

GBP/EUR €1.1313 (-€0.0011)

GBP/EUR opened in Asia at €1.1324 towards the upper end of Thursday’s range. We began the session on the front foot, seeing a slight rise to today’s high of €1.1329. The pair came under pressure as the session wore on, falling to today’s low of €1.1310. The market is still around the lows as we head into the open in Europe, trading at €1.1313. From a technical view, we look for support at €1.1267 ahead of €1.1237. On the upside, €1.1390 and €1.1450 are in focus.

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