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Is Britain on a roll?

While the US is closed for Veterans Day, UK data steals the spotlight from pre-election campaigns, albeit briefly.

Centtrip: Is Britain on a roll?

The UK pre-election campaigns take a back seat as key economic data will shed light on the latest state of affairs in the country.

Monday, 11 November

09:30 (GMT) – UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP; q/q) – Previous: -0.2%; Forecast: 0.3%

The latest round of Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) data for the UK showed that despite the picture improving, rising to 49.5 in October from 48.8 in September, the economy as a whole remains in contraction territory. That said, the services sector which accounts for over 70 per cent of the economy did show signs of improvement with a read of 50. The forecasts suggest that the UK should avoid recession in the third quarter, after contracting in the previous quarter. However, after the worst run of PMI data since the financial crisis – three months of below 50 prints in a row – today’s GDP data could be disappointing.

Tuesday, 12 November

09:30 – UK unemployment rate for September – Previous: 3.9%; Forecast: 3.9%

Having risen from 3.8 per cent to 3.9 per cent in August, the UK unemployment rate is expected to have held firm in September. The fall in employment in the three months to August was the worst in over four years. Further signs of cracks in the labour market, which has been a silver lining for the economy since the 2016 EU referendum, could cause consternation for the Pound.

10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment indicator – Previous: -22.8; Forecast: -17.9

German manufacturing PMI data released on 6 November showed a surprise uptick from 41.9 in September to 42.1 in October. Europe’s powerhouse remains deep in contraction territory. Yet this makes the improved forecast more understandable, despite industrial production falling by 0.6 per cent in September month on month. If the reading comes close to the forecast, the Euro should get a boost against its peers.

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