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Has Black Friday come too soon?

The US hopes for better retail sales data for October following disappointing results in the previous month.

UK store retail sales grow between May and June, as online slows, finds ONS…

Retail sales declined dramatically in September, which the US National Retail Federation attributed to consumers’ concerns over the lingering US-Chinese trade tensions, as well as the early Labor Day holiday. Having shrunk by 0.3 per cent, this was the biggest decline since February.

Friday, 15 November

13:30 (GMT) –  US retail sales for October (m/m) – Previous: -0.3%; Forecast: 0.2%

The Dollar could get a boost ahead of the weekend if retail sales met or exceeded expectations for October. However, some are predicting that the data could underwhelm as shoppers are holding off buying larger items, like cars, as the trade war is still in full swing.

Consumer confidence could be a good reason for the Federal Reserve to stop the current cycle of rate cuts, as increased spending tends to lead to inflationary pressure.

With Black Friday and Christmas – big consumer calendar highlights – just around the corner, the Fed may get the signals to stop cutting. However, retailers always look for ways to draw customers in, and early Black Friday sales could skew the data moving forward.

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