EUR/USD is trading little changed around $1.1475 after being unable to break above last week’s high at $1.1489. Eurozone inflation data which was largely in line with expectations had minimal impact, leaving investors to focus on Thursday’s ECB meeting and any clues about the outlook for QE. From a Dollar perspective, the greenback failed to gain any real recovery today, as US Treasury yields slipped. In terms of technicals, last Wednesday’s multi-month high at $1.1489 may offer some resistance before the May 4th high at $1.1528. On the downside, today’s low at $1.1433 and Friday’s low at $1.1390 are in focus.
GBP/USD has drifted down to $1.3048 from $1.3090 despite US Dollar weakness. UK political instability and recent comments from the BoE policymakers, citing reluctance on rate rises, appear to be keeping the Pound on the back foot. Investors may also be cautious ahead of Tuesday’s CPI and RPI data, with inflation a concern for the BoE and tomorrow’s figures likely to be under increased scrutiny. From a technical view, we look for support at the June 30th high of $1.3030 followed by the July 6th high at $1.2982. On the upside, we look for resistance at the September 22nd high of $1.3120 and September 16th 2016 high of $1.3248.
After easing to a fresh session low at ¥112.30 in early US trade, USDJPY has made a modest recovery despite the US Dollar weakness on improved risk sentiment. Major US equity indices started the week on a positive note, with the Nasdaq reaching new all-time highs and the Dow and S&P close to Friday’s record close. Today’s only macro data from the US was ignored by participants, with the Empire State Manufacturing Index slowing to a softer than expected reading of 9.8 (f/c 15.0) from 19.8 previously. In terms of technicals, today’s high at ¥112.86 may offer some resistance ahead of Friday’s high at ¥113.57 and last Wednesday’s high at ¥113.96. On the downside, Friday’s low at €112.24 and the July 3rd low of ¥111.92 are in focus.
GBP/EUR is trading lower, having retreated from three-week tops touched on Friday. A weaker sentiment around the Pound looks to be the exclusive driver of the cross with full Brexit talks starting in Brussels today. Recent comments from the BoE policymakers, citing reluctance on rate rises, may have also been keeping the Pound on the back foot ahead of tomorrow’s inflation figures, which remain a concern for the UK central bank. From a technical view, we look for support at Friday’s low of €1.1339 and Thursday’s low at €1.1267 while on the upside, Friday’s high at €1.1436 and the June 16th high at €1.1466 are in focus.