Conservative Party leader Boris Johnson has started the last week of campaigning with a 10-point lead over the Labour Party’s Jeremy Corbyn. And with that, Sterling has had a great ride, which is likely to end the week above €1.1800 – its highest level against the euro since May 2017. It has also soared above $1.3150 – its highest level against the Dollar for the past seven months.
That said, polls have got it wrong before, and if the UK wakes up to a shocking outcome, markets are likely to react very fast and violently, like we saw in the immediate aftermath of the EU referendum in 2016.
Meanwhile, as world leaders gathered for the NATO summit in the UK, Donald Trump suggested that a trade deal with China would only be signed when he was ready and that it might not happen until after the US election next year. The Dollar took a hit, bolstering the Pound and the Euro.
Today’s data note is the monthly non-farm payroll (NFP) report from the US.
13:30 (GMT) – US NFP for November – Previous: 128,000; Forecast: 180,000.
Analysts forecast NFP will show a sharp improvement in November over October. However, the release could have a somewhat muted effect on the Dollar as the number could reflect General Motors workers returning to work from a strike that took place in October.
However, any news that the labour market remains strong should provide some support to the greenback as we end the week. If the release misses expectations, the concern will be that the US-Chinese trade war is taking its toll on the sector and could weaken the Dollar further.
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